New Zealand Parole Board -

Parole Hearing

Under section 21(2) of the Parole Act 2002

Paul David Bailey

Hearing: 27 February 2023

on the papers

Members of the Board:

Ms K Snook – Panel Convenor

Mr A Spierling

Mr P Elenio

Prof P Brinded

DECISION OF THE BOARD

1. Paul David Bailey, 58, was due to appear before the Board.  He is serving a life sentence that was imposed on 27 February 1992 for a murder and rape he committed in 1991.  A few months later he was convicted of an attempted rape which occurred just before the rape and murder.  In 2005 he was convicted of further rapes of a female aged 12 to 16, which occurred in 1989 to 1990.
2. Mr Bailey has an ASRS score of two, a RoC*RoI of 0.46244, and he is on a minimum prison security classification.
3. In advance of the hearing, the Board received a waiver from Mr Bailey.  [withheld] We therefore considered Mr Bailey’s situation on an unattended basis.
4. Mr Bailey saw the Board last on 14 April 2021.  He completed the Kia Marama Child Sex Offender Treatment Programme in 2015 but did not graduate. He had additional one‑to‑one treatment with a psychologist for a limited number of sessions in 2019.
5. The last Board was concerned that there had not been sufficient focus on the violence involved in Mr Bailey’s offending.  It also noted the victims’ views about his offending.
6. Before we reached our decision today, the Board met with the victims again.  In summary their views were that they strongly oppose Mr Bailey’s release on parole.  They describe him as manipulative and dangerous.  They say that he has showed no remorse.  His offending has had a huge impact on all of their lives and on the lives of their friends and family.  They never want him to be released to live in the South Island.  They have not seen any commitment to change from him. Finally, they do not have any confidence that he will comply with any conditions imposed if he is released on parole.  He committed the murder and rape while on bail for the attempted rape.
7. The victims asked the Board to postpone consideration of parole for Mr Bailey for longer than two years and up to the maximum of five years.  The Board is only able to make a postponement order if it has given Mr Bailey notice of its intention to make such an order.  The Board has not yet given Mr Baily that notice but it is able to do that in its decision today.
8. In addition to descriptions of some of the specifics of Mr Bailey’s offending against her, the victim of the offending that Mr Bailey committed against her when [withheld], also described to the Board the situation where she was an eyewitness to the circumstances in which [withheld]. [withheld]
9. In terms of the additional treatment that the Board wanted advice on from the psychologist, we have a psychological addendum report dated 3 February 2023.  Mr Bailey remains assessed as at high risk of both violent and sexual offending.  He had additional one‑to‑one treatment with a psychologist in June and July 2022.  At the moment no further psychological treatment is recommended.  The psychologist says that Mr Bailey knows what he needs to do to stay free of offending and that he needs to now review, update and put into practice what he has learned.
10. It appears that at times Mr Bailey has difficulty putting into practice what he has learnt.  He is currently IDU 1 as a result of a positive drug test on 29 June 2022.  On 5 January 2023, Mr Bailey was found with a vape and a sharpened object.  He was found with tobacco on 6 January 2023.  His work outside the wire is on hold as a result.  An override has been considered in relation to the Drug Treatment Programme.  Mr Bailey’s ongoing rule-breaking behaviour is of concern.
11. The psychologist’s recommendation is that Mr Bailey needs to practice his skills in a gradually less restrictive environment and receive feedback and coaching as necessary.  It is suggested that this progression through to work outside the wire needs to take place over a 12 to 24 month period.  It will depend on Mr Bailey’s demonstration of reliable self‑management, ongoing communication with professional support, and compliant behaviour.  The psychologist says that closer to release, Mr Bailey will need to review and update his safety plan.
12. Whatever approach is adopted, it is clear that there is still a long pathway ahead for Mr Bailey.  That is what is recommended by the current psychological report.  In addition, this Board continues to have concerns that Mr Bailey has not yet addressed his violence.  We remain concerned about this when reading the information we have about the three lots of offending, including the rape and murder, the attempted rape and the sexual offending against a 12 to 16-year-old.  This concern was enhanced by what we heard today directly from the victim who was an eye witness to what [withheld].  Risk remains undue.  Mr Bailey is continuing to display unstable behaviour and has no release proposal. We consider that there are still deficits in his treatment.  Parole is declined.
13. We will schedule Mr Bailey to be seen again by a Board in January 2025 and no later than the end of that month.  We ask for an updated psychological report for that next hearing which takes account of the concerns raised by the Board in this decision.  It may be that the override in relation to the DTP is successful and that would be one other facet of treatment that will be important for Mr Bailey.
14. We give notice that when the Board sees Mr Bailey again in January 2025 it will be for the consideration not only of parole, but also for the making of a postponement order.  Mr Bailey will be entitled to make representations to the next Board, either himself or by way of a lawyer, in relation not only to the question of parole, but also in relation to the making of a postponement order for a period of up to five years.